[19]Lukashenko previously stated that the Belarusian defense industry can produce weapons since Belarus has access to microelectronics, optics, and other component imports from other states. The question How outdated is the Russian military? is a bit silly when one considers the acknowledgement made by nearly every MSM of the advancem Top editors give you the stories you want delivered right to your inbox each weekday. [23]Another milblogger claimed that assault detachment elements of the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division (20th Guards Combined Arms Army, Western Military District) pushed Ukrainian forces out of unspecified high-ground positions on the Svatove-Kreminna line. Whats their motivation for telling us? Losing 10,000 before breakfast never hurt the career of a Russian general, but with no surplus boys, Russia too is post-heroic. Russia has paid special attention to the development of unmanned and autonomous military systems, which it has tested in combat in eastern Ukraine, Syria, and the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war. Should this continue, this may further accelerate an end to the war. Are they third-country nationals? They work - they're owned by a Russian oligarch called Prigozhin, who's close to Putin. Clickhereto see ISWs interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. One reason for this is that junior officers are not allowed to take initiative. MCFATE: Sure. The Russian military is about twenty years behind, compared to Western powers. In everything that they do. [6]ISW has assessed that Russian invocations of nuclear threats and nuclear doctrine are part of an information operation meant to discourage Ukraine and the West but do not represent any material Russian intent to employ nuclear weapons. The way the Russians have advanced, which is that they have stuck to main roads so that they can move quickly, not risk of getting bogged down in mud. [37]Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian troops broke through Ukrainian defensive lines in Pobieda and gained new footholds within Marinka. Significant activity in Belarus(ISW assesses that a Russian or Belarusian attack into northern Ukraine in early 2023 is extraordinarily unlikely and has thus restructured this section of the update. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces are engaged in fierce fighting near Novoselivske (14km northwest of Svatove). https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0NL2GH6ye8Z9QKkzyTCr https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-demand-tanks-outstrips-production https://t.me/Sladkov_plus/7267;https://t.me/Lunay14/3910. Most of Russias initial attacks in Ukraine were relatively small, involving at most two or three battalions. MCFATE: I talked to people on the inside. [21]US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director William Burns stated on February 25 that the CIA is confident that Chinese leadership is considering the provision of lethal equipment to Russia. But any economists can tell you a dollar spent in China or Russia can buy more than a dollar in, say, Switzerland or the United States, meaning Russian military systems cost much less than Western ones, and salaries paid even to contract soldiers are much lower than in the US or Europe. They don't address non-state actors. But they are advancing on winding roads and their flanks and supply routes are overly exposed to Ukrainian attacks.. Please try again. Last modified on Mon 27 Feb 2023 15.47 EST. But the same spokesperson claimed the Russian military had been using out-of-date missiles during the war. WebPutin hints that Russia's weapons are outdated, saying it needs to modernize its military hardware. Much of that budget was stolen and spent on mega-yachts in Cyprus. Ukraine has shot down military transport planes carrying Russian paratroopers, downed helicopters and blown holes in Russias convoys using American anti-tank missiles and armed drones supplied by Turkey, these officials said, citing confidential U.S. intelligence assessments. MARTIN: That was Sean McFate. Former Soviet satellite Slovakia has been a NATO member since 2004, but the reality of belonging to the worlds biggest military alliance really kicked in after Claim: According to a February 2023 video message, U.S. President Joe Biden had invoked the Selective Service Act, which will draft 20-year-olds through lottery to the military as a result of a Thank you for joining us. Many of them are from Spetsnaz, which is Russian special forces, and they're very tough. [68]Russian independent media outlets also reported on February 27 that Russian courts extended the sentence of a Moscow resident previously sentenced for an arson attack on a military commissariat and sentenced a Volgograd resident to four years in prison for setting fire to the back room of a military registration and enlistment office on May 15. Have they proved reliable in the past? Over the past decade, the Russian armed forces have greatly improved, especially in the numbers of troops and quality of weapons. He holds a master's degree from Georgetown University and served with the Peace Corps in China. https://twitter.com/fdov21/status/1630339835058593794;https://t.me/y https://www.facebook.com/watch/president.gov.ua/;https://suspilnedot. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko may facilitate sanctions evasion schemes between Russia and China during his official trip to Beijing, China from February 28 March 2. If you look at whats on the other side, youll see that there isnt really an opponent anymore, he said. In 2018, about 400 Wagner Group mercenaries went up against some of our best troops - Delta Force, Green Berets, Marines - in eastern Syria. But if our - if these Wagner guys can go up against Delta Force and put up a fight, you know, that tells you what they're capable of. [49]Humenyuk reported that Ukrainian forces do not shell residential areas or critical infrastructure in southern Ukraine and strike Russian forces ensuring that local residents will not be affected. It's unlikely. In the fall, after losing swaths of land in Ukraines east, Russia tried to take the Ukrainian town of Bakhmut, three hours south from Vuhledar. MCFATE: I see last century's war happening in this century. You know, the U.S. Marine Corps? That would be akin to assuming that the specific problems of the US's conscription-based Army during the Vietnam War, like the practice of "fragging" unpopular officers with grenades, are the same as those of the US's volunteer military today. But one thing stands out to some analysts. Pretty outdated. Hence the stories of captured Russian troops who had no idea why they were in Ukraine. https://t.me/mod_russia/24466;https://t.me/mod_russia/24467;https:// https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-does-not-see-significant-near-term-r https://www.vice.com/en/article/bvmwk4/pentagon-putin-nukes-ukraine. [74]Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba stated on February 27 that Russias forced deportation of Ukrainian children is probably the largest forced deportation in modern history and a genocidal crime. Access your favorite topics in a personalized feed while you're on the go. [22]China may clandestinely transfer equipment to Russia via Belarus. All this aside, it is still possibleeven likelythat, if the fighting goes on much longer, the Russians will overtake the Ukrainians,capture Kyiv, and possibly oust the current government. It's certainly horrifying. He's going back to the 1940s. Russian officials and media insist there is a moral cause for Russias invasion of Ukraine and describe it as necessary for the survival of Russians and the Russian world. [55], Russian forces continue to face severe difficulties in replenishing military equipment and ammunition. It's mistaken to assume perceptions of the Russian and Soviet militaries necessarily remain true today. France is to reduce its military presence in Africa and transform its bases into partnerships with African soldiers, Russia has modern equipment such as drones, guided missiles, and technology as the USA. Russia at the moment, are depleting their older Soviet era For over a decade, Russia has undergone a great modernization of its military. https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1630616430210170880?s=20;ht https://t.me/LPR_JCCC/8071;https://t.me/LPR_JCCC/8069. [30]The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attacks on Bakhmut itself; north of Bakhmut near Dubovo-Vasylivka (6km northwest), Orikhovo-Vasylivka (10km northwest), Berkhkivka (4km north), Yahidne (1km northwest), Vasyukivka (13km northwest), and Bohdanivka (8km northwest); west of Bakhmut near Chasiv Yar (10km west); and southwest of Bakhmut near Bila Hora (15km southwest). Not outdated at all. The avangard (hypersonic glide vehicle) is faster than any other aerial vehicle in the world (with a speed of Mach 20 to27). I [9]Putin has frequently invoked mentions of domestic security, law enforcement, and counterterrorism efforts when speaking about the war in Ukraine in order to portray the war as a threat to Russian internal security and to bring the war closer to his domestic constituency as ISW has previously reported. Russia's mobilization of 300,000 reservists, destruction of much of its equipment in battle. On Wednesday, the Pentagon also said that North Korea has been secretly supplying Russia with artillery shells to be used in Ukraine. Ukraine meanwhile is receiving a variety of Western vehicles, including Leopard 2 tanks, and Bradley infantry fighting vehicles. That's clear. Here are the major military aviation procurements Russia is expected to pursue in the 2020s. [66]A prominent Russian milblogger amplified criticism of reports that a student group represented the people of Ukraine, and thus conducted ideological sabotage against Russias war effort, at a February 27 event honoring various national groups at the Russian University of the Friendship of Peoples in Moscow. Russias attempts at an offensive near Vuhledar, as much of the fighting in the Donbas region turned into an effective standstill, with neither side able to break through. Its why so many tanks and other vehicles have been spotted stuck on the side of a road. But its also due to the fact that the Russian army just isnt very good. By 2014 and 2015, wars in Ukraine and Syria revealed Russia's integration of drone surveillance, precision-strike capabilities, and deniable private military companies as tools to wage war with fewer casualties to regular Russian forces. Even with these questions satisfied, The Times uses anonymous sources as a last resort. As a result, Wagner should be considered a proxy organization of the Russian state rather than a private company selling services on the [7]Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed the Federal Security Service (FSB) board on February 28 and emphasized the role of the FSB in supporting the war in Ukraine in a law enforcement and counterterrorism capacity. In September, Putin also urged Russian defense companies to modernize and increase their production capacities, advising them to study how their equipment fares against Western weapons, per state-affiliated TV channel NTV. Even if they dont, the officials say a frustrated Mr. Putin has the firepower to simply reduce Ukraine to rubble although he would be destroying the very prize he wants. Anyone can read what you share. We utterly condemn these Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports. Fighting around the town has been ongoing since March 2022, but has been escalating since Jan. 24 when Russia launched a renewed offensive. You can follow his articles on Twitter. The town itself has been shattered by the fighting, with buildings bombed out and streets abandoned. [64]https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1630478324215455745;https://t.me [65]https://t.me/grey_zone/17471;https://t.me/concordgroup_official/528; [66]https://www.fontanka dot ru/2023/02/27/72090578/; https://t.me/astrapress/21942. Whats their motivation for telling us? Or Russia could try to shut down Ukraines banking system, or parts of the power grid, to increase pressure on the civilian population to capitulate. Russia Is Still Using 60-Year-Old Tanks in Ukraine. In theory, tanks and infantry companies in a BTG screen the artillery from counterattacks and mop up the survivors after the bombardment. And so, as the Russian invaders met resistance, they didnt quite know what to do. Russian armor losses have been so severe that military leadership is dipping into a fleet of outdated vehicles. sergeants), placing greater dependence on leadership from low-ranking commissioned officers. Right now, Ukrainian forces at Vuhledar are outnumbered when it comes to armor the first Leopard tanks donated by Poland arrived in Ukraine on Friday but the last two weeks have shown its mines are enough to hold back Russian tanks, at least for now. Russia has advanced fighter planes, a formidable navy and marines capable of multiple amphibious landings, as they proved early in the invasion when they launched from the Black Sea and headed toward the city of Mariupol. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive actions near Kreminna itself, Makiivka (22km northwest of Kreminna), Nevske (18km northwest of Kreminna), Ploshchanka (17km northwest of Kreminna), Dibrova (6km southwest of Kreminna), and Bilohorivka (10km south of Kreminna). The latest: Ukraines air defenses thwarted a number of Russian missiles fired at targets across the country on Thursday. It'll be horrific. Despite those losses, Russia is continuing its push, and with that still trying to move its armor forward, directly into Ukrainian landmines. With a range of around 600 miles, the T-72 weighs 40 tons and gets less than one mile per gallon. Recent wars in Ukraine and Syria show how Russian ground forces practice "non-contact warfare," in which long-range precision fires rather than mechanized assault take the lead. | Slate is published by The Slate Group, a Graham Holdings Company. These events suggest that there is a decline in the Russian militarys commitment to continue the war. The larger issue is that it's mistaken to assume stereotypes about the Russian and Soviet militaries from the World Wars, the Cold War or the Yeltsin years necessarily remain true today. Russia's invasion of Ukraine, now approaching its ninth month, has revealedsystemic flaws in its army's logistics, war doctrine, and military technology. This is just a strong supposition. #Ukraine #Vuhledar #Donetsk pic.twitter.com/bIqWpLpcnZ. A 2020 CSIS article, for example, counts 260,000 conscript soldiers and 410,000 contract soldiers, the latter paid an average of 62,000 rubles per month. This is possible due to the new capabilities of surveillance drones and electronic warfare units to ferret out enemy positions without having to push as many human scouts into harm's way. Regarding claims Russia lacks manpower due to a shrinking population, in fact only 5% of each yearly male cohort is conscripted, and the pool of available manpower is expected to increase for at least a decade. However, this change may have no real impact, as present mobilization law prohibits contract soldiers from quitting even after their contracts expire. The Way Ahead: Three Defining Elements for Russia Russias equipment problem is just as difficult to solve. And they do the Kremlin's dirty work. I'm thinking about, like, the election interference that we saw here in the United States. MARTIN: And by hybrid warfare, what do we mean? [47]Ukraines Southern Operational Command reported that Russian sabotage and reconnaissance occasionally try to move between islands in the Dnipro River in converted civilian vessels and that Ukrainian forces destroyed two of these watercraft on February 28. Thomas Bullock, an open source analyst from Janes, the defense intelligence firm, said Russian forces have made tactical errors that the Ukrainians have been able to capitalize on. All rights reserved. Want to write for Task & Purpose? [10]https://isw.pub/UkrWar013123;https://isw.pub/UkrWar121322; [11]https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kremlin-russia-open-ukraine-talks-w [12]https://tassdot com/politics/1582547, [14]https://tassdot com/politics/1582471, [15]https://isw.pub/UkrWar120222;https://www.middot ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1790809/;https://middot ru/ru/foreign_policy/rso/nato/1790818/, [16]https://www.beltadot by/president/view/lukashenko-sejchas-unikalnyj-moment-chtoby-ostanovit-konflikt-v-ukraine-poka-rossija-ne-postavila-552793-2023/, [17]https://www.beltadot by/president/view/lukashenko-sejchas-unikalnyj-moment-chtoby-ostanovit-konflikt-v-ukraine-poka-rossija-ne-postavila-552793-2023/. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) accused the US and its accomplices on February 28 of planning to carry out a provocation in Ukraine using toxic chemicals. President Vladimir Putin could still reduce cities in Ukraine to rubble, officials say. Residents of Mykolaiv worked to repair a captured Russian tank on Sunday. [78]https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass [79]https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1630535360735334400;https://tw https://twitter.com/GianlucaMezzo/status/1630577307260690435?s=20, [80]https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1630453726304518144, 1400 16th Street NW, Suite 515 Washington, DC 20036. [57]Russia reportedly loses 150 tanks a month in Ukraine while Russias sole tank production factory, UralVagonZavod, produces 20 tanks a month. The new Russian playbook keeps tanks and infantry outside direct-fire range until the big guns and rockets have done most of the killing. All rights reserved. On Friday, he told Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu that the military's registration and enlistment offices have to be modernized, noting "certain problems, difficulties" in Russia's mobilization of 300,000 reservists, per Russian news outlet Moscow 24. One picture shows a Russian thermobaric TOS-1A tank - a so-called "vacuum bomb" captured by the Ukrainian army. It is 82% in Strategic Nuclear Forces, but only 48,3% in the Ground Forces. The invocation of Chechnya and Finland is peculiar as while both conflicts with Russia suggest certain operational and tactical lessons, neither ended victoriously for Russia's opponents. [33]A Russian milblogger remarked that Russian troops are attacking towards Bohdanivka in order to threaten the Khromove-Bakhmut route. Visit our website terms of use and permissions pages at www.npr.org for further information. A top US defense official supported ISWs continued assessment that Russia is extraordinarily unlikely to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. [48], Ukrainian forces continue to strike Russian force concentrations and logistics in southern Ukraine. The rusty BTR-50P, which dates back to 1954, probably wont fare too well in combat. And though the Finns executed a masterful mobile defense against larger Soviet forces in 1939-1940 and 1944, Helsinki was still eventually forced to sue for peace and cede the Karelian Isthmus both times. Russia has closed down the airspace over the Pulkovo Airport in St Petersburg after an unidentified flying object was spotted, according to reports. The military mobilized an unspecified amount of BTR-50 armored personnel carriers, which have been spotted in Russian-occupied territory. Russia Is Still Using 60-Year-Old Tanks in Ukraine. Serbia has shown interest in French jets since 2022 in the hopes of replacing outdated Soviet MIGs. WebRussias Overestimated Military Might. Accuracy and availability may vary. Sign up for notifications from Insider! Now, most of those mercenaries with the Wagner Group, they are ex - we'll say, like, USSR orbit. None of this should be overstated. Therefore, large troop-transport planes tried to land, even though the airport hadnt been completely secured and Ukrainian air defense systems hadnt been destroyed. According to russian sources, the cost of one modified A-50U filled with valuable electronics is close to $330 million. Russian forces attacked residential neighborhoods of Mykolaiv, Ukraine, with artillery on Monday. ISW will revise this text and its assessment if it observes any unambiguous indicators that Russia or Belarus is preparing to attack northern Ukraine. Exact losses are unconfirmed; Ukraines military claims that in mid-February Russia lost 36 tanks. They are joined, or are about to be joined, by Belarusian troops and Chechen special forces. Which is Russian special forces continue, this change may have no real,. But they are joined, or are about to be used in Ukraine 15.47.. 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